Lease Expiration Prospecting: The CRE Broker's Most Profitable Outreach Strategy

Of all the prospecting strategies available to commercial real estate brokers, lease expiration targeting has the single best return on effort. The reason is simple: tenants with leases expiring in 12-18 months have to make a decision. The urgency is built in.

You're not trying to create a need. You're showing up at the exact moment the need already exists.

This guide covers how to find expiring leases, when to reach out, what to say, and how to systematize the entire process so it runs continuously — not just when you have time.

Why the 12-18 Month Window Is Critical

Most brokers think about lease expirations the wrong way. They wait until a lease is 6 months out and then make their pitch. By that point, three things have usually happened:

• The tenant's incumbent broker has already started renewal discussions
• The tenant is in reactive mode, not strategic mode
• The best options in the market have been picked over by other active requirements

The brokers who consistently win tenant rep assignments are the ones who arrive 12-18 months early. At that stage, the tenant isn't under pressure yet — they're open to hearing about their options, exploring the market, and thinking strategically about their real estate footprint.

That's when you want to be in the room.

Where to Find Lease Expiration Data

There are several sources for lease expiration data, ranging from free to premium:

CoStar and CommercialEdge

The most comprehensive databases for commercial lease data. CoStar tracks lease expirations by property, tenant, and market. You can filter by submarket, property type, and expiration year. It's expensive, but most active brokers already have access.

Public Filing Records

Many jurisdictions record commercial leases. County recorder offices, Secretary of State filings, and UCC filings can surface lease details. It requires more work to extract actionable data, but it's free and often overlooked by competitors.

Direct Building Research

Call the property management companies for major office and industrial parks in your market. Building managers often know when significant tenants are up for renewal — they need to do their own planning. This is relationship-driven but highly actionable.

LinkedIn and Business News

Companies that announce significant hiring, funding rounds, or restructurings often have changing real estate needs. A Series B funding announcement is a strong signal that a company will need more space. A restructuring is a signal that they might need less.

Building Your Expiration Pipeline

The best lease expiration prospecting programs treat it like a sales pipeline — not a one-time project. Here's how to build one that runs continuously:

Step 1: Define Your Target Universe

Start with your market and property type focus. Don't try to cover everything — pick the 2-3 submarkets and property types where you have the deepest market knowledge. Credibility in tenant rep comes from knowing the market better than anyone else.

Step 2: Build Your Expiration Calendar

Create a rolling 24-month view of lease expirations in your target market. Segment by size (in square footage), property type, and tenant industry. The bigger the space, the more valuable the assignment — but larger tenants also have more brokers calling them, so competition is stiffer.

Step 3: Prioritize by Outreach Timing

Work backwards from expiration date. Tenants expiring in 12-18 months get outreach now. Tenants expiring in 18-24 months go into your awareness pipeline — lighter touches, market updates, relationship building. Tenants expiring in 6 months or less are worth a call but the odds are lower.

Step 4: Build a Tiered Contact Sequence

Don't send one email and hope for a response. The most effective lease expiration campaigns use a 4-6 touch sequence over 60-90 days:

1. Day 0: Initial email — introduce yourself, mention the expiration, offer a market briefing
2. Day 5: Follow-up — share a specific market data point relevant to their situation
3. Day 14: Value-add — send a summary of recent comparable transactions in the submarket
4. Day 30: Phone call or LinkedIn message
5. Day 60: Soft re-engagement email — check for any change in status

What to Say: The Lease Expiration Conversation Framework

Your messaging should center on one core value proposition: you help tenants make better real estate decisions with better market information. Not: "I have listings." Not: "Let me represent you." Those come later.

Lead with market intelligence. Lead with the fact that you're paying attention to their specific situation. Lead with something they don't already know.

"I specialize in tenant representation for [industry type] companies in [submarket] and noticed your current space at [address] is coming up in the next 12-18 months. The market has shifted significantly since your last renewal — tenant leverage is meaningfully different today than it was when you signed your current deal. Worth 15 minutes to talk through what your options actually look like?"

That's it. No pitch. No pressure. Just market intelligence and a simple question.

Automating the Lease Expiration Machine

The challenge with lease expiration prospecting isn't the strategy — it's the execution. Running a proper multi-touch campaign for 200 expiring leases simultaneously requires significant time and discipline.

Top producers solve this with automation. MogulAim was built specifically for this use case — you upload your list of expiring leases with tenant contact information, define your sequence, and the AI writes personalized outreach for each contact based on their company, property type, and market. Sequences fire automatically. You get notified when someone replies.

The result is a lease expiration machine that runs continuously — not just when you happen to have a free afternoon.

Tracking Results and Iterating

Track every campaign with at minimum: open rate, reply rate, and meetings booked. If your open rate is below 25%, the problem is your subject line. If your open rate is high but reply rate is low, the problem is your message. If replies are high but meetings aren't converting, the problem is your call or your qualifying criteria.

Lease expiration prospecting compounds over time. The tenants who say "not yet" in year one often say yes in year two. The relationships you build through consistent, value-driven outreach become assignments 18 months later.

Start earlier than you think you need to. Reach out more times than feels comfortable. Track everything. That's the lease expiration formula that works.